The Streetlight Effect, looking for the keys where the light is, not where they were lost. War Economy is the only publication which observes daily the global supply chains.
The Kris Point: Orientation under uncertainty and structured judgement in global geoeconomics.
The Streetlight Effect
I have mentioned often on Twitter and Substack the episode in an Italian comedy where a drunk man was looking for the lost keys at night where there was a Streetlight, not where the keys were lost somewhere else. Apparently, after I asked ChatGPT, there is a social definition for this behavior, it’s called The Streetlight Effect.
It’s about operating exclusively in the zone where you have knowledge of, disregarding all other events anywhere else, the meaning of which you have no idea about.
Elites operate exclusively under the Streetlight Effect
Davos was such place. 99% of Youtube and Twitter and Substack are such places. It’s all Finance, Finance, Finance, Finance, Finance.
There was close to 0 focus on supply chains in Davos from actual supply chain operators. There is close to zero focus on supply chains on Twitter or Youtube from actual supply chain operators. That’s all the elites know.
The entire world expects The Politicians and Finance/Banking to explain and ultimately solve supply chains, not actual supply chain operators.
There are 0 publications globally which focus on global supply chains daily, except for mine here, War Economy.
Bloomberg, CNBC, Financial Times etc, all pretend they are discussing supply chains now. 99% of the invitations are for hedge funds and bankers. Rarely some supply chain person is invited. It should have been the opposite, 80% of the invitations to speak and discuss must go to the supply chain operators, not hedge funds and banks.
No Bloomberg, CNBC TV anchors have any clue about the supply chains, they are 100% specialized in finance.
And of course, supply chains keep breaking down. They are left in the hands of Hedge Funds to fix it, what would you expect to happen otherwise, only non stop misery.
The Kris Point:
We are nowhere near the bottom, the Politically Connected Hedge Funds are still running the economy. They are all drunkards operating under the Streetlight Effect, looking for the keys where the light is, not where they were lost. The worst is yet to come, make no mistake about it.
I guess the general view to fix inflation is to be able to pay for it, hence finance.
Truer words were never spoken. There are street lamps and then there are beacons of light